This is a strange post - canola, on a basis contract that I signed last weekend, hit $14.72/bushel today. That is for the 2008 crop that we have yet to grow, December delivery.
Why does this matter? Well, I picked $14.72 as my canola price this year. Pulled a number out of the air, one that I thought was pretty much ludicrous, and told Dale that he should price at that number. And Dale, quite obligingly, has priced a bit of canola at my target.
Now I'm scared. Marketing makes me nervous, as everyone knows. But, we are delivering canola this week at about $9/bushel. Most years, we aim for $7. I don't think this is going to be a walkaway by any means - we need more moisture (not a lot of snow out there yet), input costs are ridiculous - we are purchasing a bunch of anhydrous ammonia tomorrow to try to minimize the price hike.
It is just weird that this is my price, and it was hit at close today. Dale is still thinking $19.72, but only time will tell where we should have been.
And now, to grow the crop...
My sister is taking her family to visit relatives this week - such a good girl. Hope all goes well!
1 comment:
Wow... marketing makes me nervous for you. The whole business of farming is so unpredictable and yet you hit the canola price right on the money, so to speak. Do you have ESP or just a good sense of the market?
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